Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40 and Beyond.

More than 40 years after the 1978 Bethesda Conference on the Declining Mortality from Coronary Heart Disease provided the scientific community with a blueprint for systematic analysis to understand declining rates of coronary heart disease, there are indications the decline has ended or even reversed despite advances in our knowledge about the condition and treatment. Recent data show a more complex situation, with mortality rates for overall cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke, decelerating, whereas those for heart failure are increasing. To mark the 40th anniversary of the Bethesda Conference, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the American Heart Association cosponsored the "Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40" symposium. The objective was to examine the immediate and long-term outcomes of the 1978 conference and understand the current environment. Symposium themes included trends and future projections in cardiovascular disease (in the United States and internationally), the evolving obesity and diabetes epidemics, and harnessing emerging and innovative opportunities to preserve and promote cardiovascular health and prevent cardiovascular disease. In addition, participant-led discussion explored the challenges and barriers in promoting cardiovascular health across the lifespan and established a potential framework for observational research and interventions that would begin in early childhood (or ideally in utero). This report summarizes the relevant research, policy, and practice opportunities discussed at the symposium.

Complications of Adenoviral Keratoconjunctivitis in Ophthalmologists and Orthoptists: Epidemiology and Risk Factor, A Retrospective Questionnaire Analysis.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess the medical history of adenoviral keratoconjunctivitis (AK) and subepithelial infiltrates (SEIs) among French ophthalmologists and orthoptists and the frequency of unreported occupational diseases. We also described short-term and long-term consequences of AK and evaluated associated factors. METHODS: The REDCap questionnaire was diffused online several times over 7 consecutive months, from October 2019 to May 2020, through mailing lists (French Society of Ophthalmology, residents, and hospital departments), social networks, and by word of mouth. RESULTS: Seven hundred ten participants were included with a response rate of 6.2% for ophthalmologists, 3.8% for orthoptists, and 28.3% for ophthalmology residents. The medical history of AK was found in 24.1% (95% confidence interval 21%-27.2%) of respondents and SEI in 43.9% (36.5%-51.3%) of the AK population. In total, 87.1% (82.1%-92.1%) of AK occupational diseases were not declared. In total, 57.7% of respondents took 9.4 ± 6.2 days of sick leave, mostly unofficial, and 95.7% stopped surgeries for 13.0 ± 6.6 days. Among the AK population, 39.8% had current sequelae, with 17.5% having persistent SEIs, 19.9% using current therapy, and 16.4% experiencing continuing discomfort. SEIs were associated with wearing contact lenses (odds ratio 3.31, 95% confidence interval 1.19-9.21) and smoking (4.07, 1.30-12.8). Corticosteroid therapy was associated with a greater number of sequelae (3.84, 1.51-9.75). CONCLUSIONS: AK and SEI affect a large proportion of ophthalmologists and orthoptists, possibly for years, with high morbidity leading to occupational discomfort. Few practitioners asked for either to be recognized as an occupational disease. Associated factors would require a dedicated study.

Effect of Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines against COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in real-world settings at countrywide vaccination campaign in Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVE: Vaccinations are highly essential to control infectious diseases and epidemics. Presently, the entire world faces a challenging crisis of "Severe Acute Respiratory Diseases Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as the COVID-19 pandemic". The impact of vaccines at national levels to reduce the SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths are unclear, and people have concerns about the effectiveness of vaccines in real-world settings. This study's objective was to examine the effect of the "Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca" vaccines to prevent SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths in Saudi Arabia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we collected data on SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths from the date of the first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia March 2, 2020, to the date of launching the vaccination campaign on December 14, 2020; and from December 15, 2020, to September 8, 2021. We recorded the World Health Organization data and Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia to evaluate the impact of the "Pfizer/BioNTech, (BNT162b2 mRNA) and Oxford/AstraZeneca (AZD1222)" vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths before and after the vaccination campaign in Saudi Arabia. RESULTS: Saudi Arabia launched the "Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca" vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 on December 14, 2020. In Saudi Arabia, before the vaccination campaign from March 2, 2020, to December 14, 2020, the mean daily SARS-CoV-2 cases were 1235.60, daily deaths were 22.70, that significantly reduced (p=0.0001) compared to the period after the vaccination campaign from December 15, 2020, to September 8, 2021, in which the daily cases fell to 692.08, and daily deaths fell to 9.48 (p=0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In Saudi Arabia, Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccinations significantly reduced the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths after the vaccination compared to the period before the vaccination campaign at country levels. The study findings demonstrate that vaccination and adherence to nonpharmaceutical intervention can better control the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistical Estimation of the Reproductive Number From Case Notification Data.

The reproductive number, or reproduction number, is a valuable metric in understanding infectious disease dynamics. There is a large body of literature related to its use and estimation. In the last 15 years, there has been tremendous progress in statistically estimating this number using case notification data. These approaches are appealing because they are relevant in an ongoing outbreak (e.g., for assessing the effectiveness of interventions) and do not require substantial modeling expertise to be implemented. In this article, we describe these methods and the extensions that have been developed. We provide insight into the distinct interpretations of the estimators proposed and provide real data examples to illustrate how they are implemented. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of available software and opportunities for future development.

COVID-19 and UK family carers: policy implications.

Informal (unpaid) carers are an integral part of all societies and the health and social care systems in the UK depend on them. Despite the valuable contributions and key worker status of informal carers, their lived experiences, wellbeing, and needs have been neglected during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Health Policy, we bring together a broad range of clinicians, researchers, and people with lived experience as informal carers to share their thoughts on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on UK carers, many of whom have felt abandoned as services closed. We focus on the carers of children and young people and adults and older adults with mental health diagnoses, and carers of people with intellectual disability or neurodevelopmental conditions across different care settings over the lifespan. We provide policy recommendations with the aim of improving outcomes for all carers.

A History of Cerebrovascular Disease Is Independently Associated with Increased Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: A Cohort Study of 369,563 COVID-19 Cases in the USA.

OBJECTIVES: We set out to evaluate the risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and subsequent cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in the population with a prior diagnosis of CVD within the past 10 years. METHODS: We utilized the TriNetX Analytics Network to query 369,563 CO-VID-19 cases up to December 30, 2020. We created 8 cohorts of patients with COVID-19 diagnosis based on a previous diagnosis of CVD. We measured the odds ratios, relative risks, risk differences for hospitalizations, ICU/critical care services, intubation, mortality, and CVD recurrence within 90 days of COVID-19 diagnosis, compared to a propensity-matched cohort with no prior history of CVD within 90 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: 369,563 patients had a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 with a subset of 22,497 (6.09%) patients with a prior diagnosis of CVD within 10 years. All cohorts with a CVD diagnosis had an increased risk of hospitalization, critical care services, and mortality within 90 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Additionally, the data demonstrate that any history of CVD is associated with significantly increased odds of subsequent CVD post-COVID-19 compared to a matched control. CONCLUSIONS: CVD, a known complication of CO-VID-19, is more frequent in patients with a prior history of CVD. Patients with any previous diagnosis of CVD are at higher risks of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 infection. In patients admitted to the ED due to COVID-19 symptoms, these risk factors should be promptly identified as delayed or missed risk stratification and could lead to an ineffective and untimely diagnosis of subsequent CVD, which would lead to protracted hospitalization and poor prognosis.

Health and socio-demographic implications of the Covid-19 second pandemic wave in Israel, compared with the first wave.

BACKGROUND: Israel's containment of the first wave of Covid-19 was relatively successful. Soon afterwards, however, in the summer months, a harsher pandemic wave developed, resulting in many more seriously ill and dead Israelis. Israel was the world's first country to impose a second general lockdown. The present study outlines the early months of Israel's second pandemic wave, until the imposition of the second general lockdown, and their impact on various communities. The investigation is conducted in conjunction with five sociodemographic variables: population density, socioeconomic status, rate of elderly population, minority status (Jewish / Arab identity) and religiosity (Ultra-Orthodox vs. other Jewish communities). METHODS: The analysis is based on a cross sectional study of morbidity rates, investigated on a residential community basis. Following the descriptive statistics, we move on to present a multivariate analysis to explore associations between the five aforementioned sociodemographic variables and Covid-19 morbidity in Israel in the early second pandemic wave vs. the first Covid-19 outbreak. RESULTS: Both the descriptive statistics and regressions show morbidity rates to be significantly and positively associated with communities' population density and significantly and negatively associated with socioeconomic status (SES) and the size of elderly population. These results differ from Wave I morbidity, which was not significantly associated with SES. Another difference vis-a-vis Wave I is the rise of morbidity in Arab communities that led to the disappearance of the previously observed significant negative association of morbidity with minority (Arab) status. Exceptional morbidity was found in Ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities. CONCLUSION: The second wave of Covid-19 in Israel has profoundly affected marginalized communities characterized by high residential density, low SES and minority status. Other marginalized and disempowered communities have also been badly hit. While acknowledging the potential contribution of various possible causes, we highlight the policy response of Israel's government during the early weeks of the second Covid-19 outbreak, suggesting that the severe second wave might possibly be associated with belated, undecided government response during this period.

Maternal and Neonatal Morbidity and Mortality Among Pregnant Women With and Without COVID-19 Infection: The INTERCOVID Multinational Cohort Study.

Importance: Detailed information about the association of COVID-19 with outcomes in pregnant individuals compared with not-infected pregnant individuals is much needed. Objective: To evaluate the risks associated with COVID-19 in pregnancy on maternal and neonatal outcomes compared with not-infected, concomitant pregnant individuals. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study that took place from March to October 2020, involving 43 institutions in 18 countries, 2 unmatched, consecutive, not-infected women were concomitantly enrolled immediately after each infected woman was identified, at any stage of pregnancy or delivery, and at the same level of care to minimize bias. Women and neonates were followed up until hospital discharge. Exposures: COVID-19 in pregnancy determined by laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 and/or radiological pulmonary findings or 2 or more predefined COVID-19 symptoms. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome measures were indices of (maternal and severe neonatal/perinatal) morbidity and mortality; the individual components of these indices were secondary outcomes. Models for these outcomes were adjusted for country, month entering study, maternal age, and history of morbidity. Results: A total of 706 pregnant women with COVID-19 diagnosis and 1424 pregnant women without COVID-19 diagnosis were enrolled, all with broadly similar demographic characteristics (mean [SD] age, 30.2 [6.1] years). Overweight early in pregnancy occurred in 323 women (48.6%) with COVID-19 diagnosis and 554 women (40.2%) without. Women with COVID-19 diagnosis were at higher risk for preeclampsia/eclampsia (relative risk [RR], 1.76; 95% CI, 1.27-2.43), severe infections (RR, 3.38; 95% CI, 1.63-7.01), intensive care unit admission (RR, 5.04; 95% CI, 3.13-8.10), maternal mortality (RR, 22.3; 95% CI, 2.88-172), preterm birth (RR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.30-1.94), medically indicated preterm birth (RR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.56-2.51), severe neonatal morbidity index (RR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.69-4.18), and severe perinatal morbidity and mortality index (RR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.66-2.75). Fever and shortness of breath for any duration was associated with increased risk of severe maternal complications (RR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.92-3.40) and neonatal complications (RR, 4.97; 95% CI, 2.11-11.69). Asymptomatic women with COVID-19 diagnosis remained at higher risk only for maternal morbidity (RR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.00-1.54) and preeclampsia (RR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.63). Among women who tested positive (98.1% by real-time polymerase chain reaction), 54 (13%) of their neonates tested positive. Cesarean delivery (RR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.18-3.91) but not breastfeeding (RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.66-1.85) was associated with increased risk for neonatal test positivity. Conclusions and Relevance: In this multinational cohort study, COVID-19 in pregnancy was associated with consistent and substantial increases in severe maternal morbidity and mortality and neonatal complications when pregnant women with and without COVID-19 diagnosis were compared. The findings should alert pregnant individuals and clinicians to implement strictly all the recommended COVID-19 preventive measures.

COVID-19 morbidity in patients after orthotopic heart transplantation - single center clinical observation.

INTRODUCTION: The study is a prospective clinical observation of patients after orthotopic heart transplantation in a large academic medical center in relation to COVID-19 morbidity. The study population was comprised of 552 patients. All patients were consulted and advised by telephone as regards the prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hospital and outpatient follow-ups were limited to the minimum. Preventive modification of immunosuppression was not recommended in relation to the pandemic. Three patients with multiple comorbidities (a woman aged 60, a man aged 59, and another man aged 83; 2.25 years, 5.5 years, and 7.5 years after heart transplantation, respectively) and one patient with concomitant arterial hypertension (a woman aged 48, 5.5 years after heart transplantation) presented with a symptomatic COVID-19 infection. Three of the patients were on tacrolimus immunosuppression, and both female patients were additionally on therapy with mycophenolate mofetil, which was discontinued following the diagnosis of infection. One male patient received combined therapy of cyclosporine A and mycophenolate mofetil. The 60-year-old woman presented with gastrointestinal manifestations of the COVID-19 infection which were of moderate severity. The recovery was achieved. The 59-year-old man presented with myocardial infarction, exacerbated renal insufficiency that required hemodialysis and cardiorespiratory failure complicated by bacterial sepsis. As a result, the patient died. The 83-year-old male patient reporting fever, myalgia, fatigue, cough and dyspnea was admitted to hospital and deceased due to septic shock two days after admission. The 48-year old woman who presented with mild symptoms of the upper respiratory tract infection recovered after two weeks. Symptomatic treatment was used in all the patients. Another male patient (aged 45 years, 8 years after orthotopic heart transplant with no significant comorbidities) was an asymptomatic carrier of SARS-CoV-2 and remained under hospital care. CONCLUSIONS: Of 552 patients after orthotopic heart transplantation, two SARS-CoV-2-related deaths were reported.

Analyzing Trends in the Global Surge of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Submissions to The Journal of Pediatrics.

During February to December 2020, there were 498 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic-focused brief report and original article submissions to The Journal of Pediatrics. The majority were from international authors (68.1%). Early in the pandemic, geographic origin of the corresponding author paralleled the path of COVID-19 infection both within the US and around the globe.

Predictors of morbidity and mortality in COVID-19.

The mortality of COVID-19 patients is increasing in logarithmic fashion and is mostly observed in older age people and patients having history of chronic ailments like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular & cerebrovascular dysfunction, compromised immunity, renal comorbidities, hepatic, obesity problems etc., and recently investigated thrombotic complications. The molecular underpinnings linking the chronic human diseases with COVID-19 related morbidity and mortality are evolving and poorly understood. The aim of the present review is to discuss the mortality and morbidity in COVID-19 in relation to preexisting comorbidities across the globe, upcoming molecular mechanisms associated with expression profile of ACE2 and viral load, evolving pathophysiology of COVID-19 with special reference to thrombotic complication ('Storm of Blood Clots') and related predictive markers. The levels of plasminogen/plasmin in comorbid diseases of COVID-19 have been elaborated in the framework of risk and benefits of fibrinolysis in COVID-19. We have also attempted to discuss the puzzle of prescribing ARBs and ACEI drugs in COVID-19 management which are routinely prescribed for the management of hypertension in COVID-19 patients. A focused discourse on risk of cardiovascular complications and diabetes in concert with COVID-19 pathogenesis has been presented along with dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 induced immune dysfunctions in COVID-19 patients.

Perioperative Morbidity and Mortality of Patients With COVID-19 Who Undergo Urgent and Emergent Surgical Procedures.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the perioperative morbidity and mortality of patients with COVID-19 who undergo urgent and emergent surgery. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Although COVID-19 infection is usually associated with mild disease, it can lead to severe respiratory complications. Little is known about the perioperative outcomes of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We examined patients who underwent urgent and emergent surgery at 2 hospitals in New York City from March 17 to April 15, 2020. Elective surgical procedures were cancelled throughout and routine, laboratory based COVID-19 screening was instituted on April 1. Mortality, complications, and admission to the intensive care unit were compared between patients with COVID-19 detected perioperatively and controls. RESULTS: Among 468 subjects, 36 (7.7%) had confirmed COVID-19. Among those with COVID-19, 55.6% were detected preoperatively and 44.4% postoperatively. Before the routine preoperative COVID-19 laboratory screening, 7.7% of cases were diagnosed preoperatively compared to 65.2% after institution of screening (P = 0.0008). The perioperative mortality rate was 16.7% in those with COVID-19 compared to 1.4% in COVID-19 negative subjects [aRR = 9.29; 95% confidence interval (CI), 5.68-15.21]. Serious complications were identified in 58.3% of COVID-19 subjects versus 6.0% of controls (aRR = 7.02; 95%CI, 4.96-9.92). Cardiac arrest, sepsis/shock, respiratory failure, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and acute kidney injury were more common in those with COVID-19. The intensive care unit admission rate was 36.1% in those with COVID-19 compared to 16.4% of controls (aRR = 1.34; 95%CI, 0.86-2.09). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is associated with an increased risk for serious perioperative morbidity and mortality. A substantial number of patients with COVID-19 are not identified until after surgery.